Will the “Real” GDP Please Stand Up? (The Deflator Makes Big a Difference)

Real GDP Revised

Note from dshort: With today’s release of the Q4 GDP Second Estimate, I’ve spent some time updating my occasional analysis of the government’s calculation of the Real GDP.


How do you get from Nominal GDP to Real GDP? You subtract inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses its own GDP deflator for this purpose, which is somewhat different from the BEA’s deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures and quite a bit different from the better-known Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index.

The charts below show quarterly Real GDP since 1960 with the official and three variant adjustment techniques. The first chart is the official series as calculated by the BEA with the GDP deflator. The second starts with nominal GDP and adjusts using the PCE Deflator, which is also a product of the BEA. The third adjusts nominal GDP with the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U, or as I prefer, just CPI). The forth chart, prompted by several requests, adjusts nominal GDP using the Alternate CPI published by economist John Williams at shadowstats.com .MORE



Categories: Financial News

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